UEFA CL-Q Soccer - Tue 7/18

[quantumleap]

Disclaimer:
I know very little about most of these teams. I'm honing my soccer capping skills so that I can be ready for the European leagues in August. Please do not take these picks as anything more than mildly educated guesses.

Rabotnički Kometal/F91 Dudelange Under 2.5 and 3 +111 (Pinnacle)
In the first game of this home/away series Rabotnički won 1-0 away. The spread for this game is -1.5 and 2 reflecting the fact that Rabotnicki is clearly the better team. The line being at Under 2.5 and 3 also tells me that the public expects a lot of goals because of the disparity of the quality of the teams and the fact that Rabotnički is at home.

I think this has a good chance of going under due to the fact that Rabotnički has 1 goal already. If they score first they will be up 2-0 in the series and can coast from there. The biggest factor I believe in the Under here is due to the fact that their best midfielder Ignjatov is injured. They also lost their best defender and their best striker from last year as each left the club. Rabotnički didn't look all that impressive offensively in the first meeting but kept Dudelange from scoring after they had several opportunities.

More later.

 

[HinesWard86]

That is good logic to use in Champions League when it comes to the later stages, but in the early stages I have seen that anything can happen. These teams in the Qualifying Stages are extremely bipolar, regardless BOL to you QL and hope you cash.

 

[quantumleap]

7/19/06:

B36 Tórshavn/Birkirkara Under 2.5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Here we have another team in B36 that had an away win except this time it was 3-0. B36 will not need to be offensively-minded this match in order to carry on to the next round. In fact, they weren't offensively-minded in the first match despite the score as they had only a few shots on goal. Amed Davy Sylla for B36 was able to capitalize on his scoring chances by scoring 2 goals in the 1st half. The third goal was a meaningless goal near the end of stoppage time.

Birkirkara was clearly not up to the task of scoring in the first game and my thoughts are that they will not be in the second as well. They are playing without several of their players as they have been ruled out. They are also playing some of their first games after having an extended break.

 

[quantumleap]

That is good logic to use in Champions League when it comes to the later stages, but in the early stages I have seen that anything can happen. These teams in the Qualifying Stages are extremely bipolar, regardless BOL to you QL and hope you cash.

Thanks for the input Hines. This is my first foray into the world of early qualifying stages of the CL. Most of my experience with this competition has been at later stages so any input is welcom.

What I am reading regarding the bipolar characteristics of these games is that frequently teams look to get a draw on the road and a clear win at home. I am using the bipolar principle here of betting the under when a decidedly better team wins on the road. My thinking is that they will look to score early and then play defensively to secure that they are able to continue on to the next round.

 

[quantumleap]

7/19/06:

HIT Gorica/Linfield Belfast FC under 2.5 +110
Here we have the same situation of a better team in Gorica winning on the road (in this case it was 3-1). We also have the public looking at the 4 goals scored and thinking "hey, the better team won on the road so they will do really well at home" and automatically hitting the over button to make their bets. But Gorica need not win decidedly here to advance. This will be another case of a better team at home playing defensively to insure their chances of advancing to the next round.

 

[quantumleap]

Rabotnički Kometal 0, Dudelange 0
Series: 1-0 +1.11

 

[quantumleap]

7/19/06:

Myllykosken Pallo Anjalankoski/Total Networking Solutions Llans Under 2.5 -133 (Interwetten)
I'm sorry but after studying this match I feel that is must fall in line with the others I have chosen previously. MyPa won 1-0 at home against this Welsh team that is playing their second match of the season. MyPa is in the middle of the tables of their league this year after 11 matches so their game has not been on. I feel another 1-0 score here or possibly a 0-0 draw as we saw in the Rabotnički Kometal/Dudelange match today after Rabot had a 1-0 lead after the first match.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, one more:

Linfield Belfast FC +1.5 -105 over HIT Gorica (Pinnacle)
Gorica is the better team here and is at home. So why do I take the Belfast club here? Simple. Gorica does not need to win by 2 to carry on to the next round since they won the first match between these 2 clubs by a 3-1 advantage. Since I took the under in this match I feel Gorica will play defensively and could even settle for a draw.

 

[quantumleap]

7/19/06:

Myllykosken Pallo Anjalankoski/Total Networking Solutions Llans Under 2.5 -133 (Interwetten)
I'm sorry but after studying this match I feel that is must fall in line with the others I have chosen previously. MyPa won 1-0 at home against this Welsh team that is playing their second match of the season. MyPa is in the middle of the tables of their league this year after 11 matches so their game has not been on. I feel another 1-0 score here or possibly a 0-0 draw as we saw in the Rabotnički Kometal/Dudelange match today after Rabot had a 1-0 lead after the first match.

Adding another unit to this bet. This is now for a total of 2 units.

 

[quantumleap]

Wednesday's results:

B36 Tórshavn 2, Birkirkara 2 (1 loss)
HIT Gorica 2, Linfield Belfast FC 2 (1 win, 1 loss)
MyPa 1, TNS 0 (1 win, 2 units)

2-2 +0.46

Record for the series:
3-2 +1.57

3rd series in a row with a net gain. I think I'll start counting YTD series with the Intertoto coming up this week.